Embracing uncertainty

i don't agree with everything in this article but i think it is a good read. i agree with embracing the uncertainty, either it's going up here or it's not, vice versa. believe in the probabilities of the setup. i can't remember how i found it but here it is....

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2009/08/here-is-first-of-two-post-by-fellow.html

i haven't read part two yet but here you go....

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2009/08/galdiator-x-speaks-part-ii.html

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made just one trade today. seemed difficult to gauge any direction in this market til lunchtime. then we got a little move. i checked my week and realized that it was a positive week. also, last week was positive as well. going from losing almost everyday for my first two months to being positive two weeks in a row feels great.

the downside to all of this, is right as i am getting a hang of reading the markets and identifying the momo, i have to go travel for the next few months for work. i am a contract employee and my company calls when they need my help on a project that i always work. the good thing is, i will be earning money to make up for the losses in my account as well as putting some money in the bank so i don't have to work when i get done with the contract. i can just trade full time as i have been for the last 2 months.

i plan on wathcing the markets when i have a chance to keep up with the feel of the level 2 and time and sales but i don't plan on trading much. i might have a break from sept 20 til october 8th or so, so most likely i won't be posting until then.

50% retracement, yesterdays low, 20 sma, red bar. i liked it. could have held on longer but SPY but in a green engulfing candle so i figured i take my money and run. also, during the lunchtime consolidation i was thinking about shorting it, or longing it because it was now above the 20 sma. i guess long was the way to go. just trying to stay green for the week.

playing a set up my friend does. minimum 8 red bars down. then you wait for a green bar. well, we didn't wait and i got shook out the first time. though, for the first time, i had brains to get back in along with some persuading from my friend. i was looking for .50 but couldn't wait. i have to learn to be patient. it really is amazing. you can sit in a losing trade for an hour, but you can't sit in a winner for 10 mins. actually, i need to "own" that statement as the meditation cd would say. therefore, I can sit in a losing trade for an hour but I can't sit in a winner for more than 10 minutes. though, if i had sat in them to long it looks like they would have become losers. i would say another good day, especially after being down big (for me) right as i put on my first trade. i hate missing those moves in aig but i know i would have piked out for .30 cents. must remain focused and watch time/sales and level 2.

came in late today. saw WLT breaking lows and breaking down from a long consolidation. it trades pretty orderly so i shorted it. also, saw RIG breaking down. a couple good trade. wish i had a few more shares. exited because i had .31 and .18, which are big moves for me to catch with no pain.

this was the trade. if i would have taken some off at .95 (instead i had an order at .90 that didn't get hit) then i would have felt comfortable giving this trade to .30 which was the prior breakout. but i didn't get out of any, and i didn't want to sit in an .18 loser, even though that isn't so far away. i need to stop concentrating on the p/l and look and the loss per share, i.e. .18 vs $18














just scalping this one all day. pushed my luck one too many times at the whole. i think this afternoon we tried to make up for the drop we missed right at the end of lunch but it was unsuccesful. i ended up giving back my day in this one, but i thought the risk reward was worth it. i was risking .10 for a .40 move.

looked like a great retracement.

x - 50% swing h/l, 8 ema, stop @ .75 changed to .63 which was .03 below 10 am breakout candle

csx - bull flag, stop .06

fcx stop @ .92...38%...yesterdays high

mee (never got) 50%, 20 sma, green bar, stop @ .09

didn't want to push my luck in aig with one last trade. that thing is a beast. i'll get back to doing the charts soon












don't know why i got out at .02. i have to start writing down my reasoning. i know the prior candles high was .05












trying to short the retracement. got out as it went above .82 which is .03 above the 10:15 candle. looking back, i could have given it a few more pennies, but they say you need to respect your stops because when you don't it will kill your account. and the problem is, if i wouldn't have gotten out, the trade would have worked, and then i would be less inclined to respect my stops next time. lose lose situation. either i need to get better prices, or i need to scale in more and take more share size, or i need wider stops. have to figure it out as we go. i also plan on printing all my charts, and going over them in the next week or so. i have to see what i have done wrong in the past so i don't make the same mistakes. i feel i am getting slightly better but i need to find these picks and have confidence in them.

finally

getting closer to making money.

closer to making money but not yet. almost there. need to stop hesi trading. have to print and review all my old charts.

scalping

i am annoyed right now. got a little crazy this afternoon after missing a bunch of good trades earlier in the day. i should have just left for the day break even. i don't even want to put up any charts right now.

pressed my luck one to many times with FAS. that thing is crazy. here is the chart of ryl.

so, i should have made money today with a little patience but i have none. then i trade doing the momo thing with fas, and didn't work out. i thought the crazy bulls would push this one up after 330 but as of now, i missed the trade. i should have bought it at 14:50 when the market SPY bounced off the previous days low, but again i was late on that one. i am just glad i got out of FAS. i missed my first out at .38. waited for it to come back, but it didn't. wow, now i see that bitch rallying back up. whore!

i wanted to buy the opening of the previous candle at .95 but didn't. i ended up buying the opening of the next candle, that big fat red one. thats what happen when you hesitate.

i was attempting to short this into yesterdays low. i was patient, let it run up a little and shorted at 37.97. i hit out at 38.05, it continued to run up to .19 and then come back down.

i was also looking to short ryl but didn't pull the trigger. a matter of lack of confidence. i have to believe the trade is going to work. i will post the chart at end of day.