Monday, October 4, 2010
MOS: I thought possibly I good get a turnaround like the 11:15 doji. Bought after it broke real body of doji. Held for over an hour and then doubled up as it broke local highs. My plan is to enter/exit based solely on the 15min and use the waves of the 5 min to add. Here instead of adding, I actually exited half the shares. I just felt I was holding too much size. I hadn't fully accepted the risk of the second add. According to the plan, I should have been adding at that point. I closed it early because I thought the market was going to collapse and I wanted to concentrate on RIG. Maybe concentrating on one stock is what drives me nuts. All my eggs in one basket. I may have to adjust the idea of the 15min entry/exit. It ruined the RIG trade. I may have to accept an exit with double confirmation of the 5 and 10.
RIG: I like the first short. The second add was an "excited" add as it was breaking recent lows. Ideally, the add should have come after the pop. The third add I actually like. I can't tell if it broke the lows of the prior bar, but it looks like it may have and then went up. All the exits were on their respective stops from each add. At the bottom of the move, there wasn't a huge volume move with RIG but the ticker was running red at this point. I was actually waiting for a -1000 tick, but it never came. Hence no exit. I will say, seeing the 5 doji, and then the 10 doji all I wanted to do was exit. But, I convinced myself to push through the pain. That I am never going to make more money by taking these profits. I will tell you, I felt like throwing up, honestly. I was in such discomfort not closing the trade, but I said to myself "you got to work past this". Oh well, looks like I was wrong. This is what happens. Every time I push, I give it all back. Going back to the double confirmation from the 5 and 10, maybe on the 15, when the new bar (preferable the opposite color i think) closing the exact same size or larger than the previous bar, it is a signal to get out. I was waiting for a doji, hammer, or -1000 tick that never came. The swallowing effect of the new bar I should take into consideration for now on. Lesson learned.
All in all I have to say it was definitely a learning day. I was for sure second guessing everything I was seeing. I think that came from the confusion I was seeing in the market. Was it going down more, was it double bottoming, what is happening. I also passed up a few trades which never set up properly so I feel good about that as well.
Good luck tomorrow.
Nice double bottom here.
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