went after WLT on that nice 15 min doji. after i placed it, i realized the stop was way too far away so i closed it swiftly. thinking now, i could have zoomed into the 5 min to give it a chance. comical because i was telling dtf the same thing today

inverted hammers on the 5/10, doji on the 15, thats signals firing on all cyclinders. looking now, i don't see any signals saying to exit.

comparing my chart to aynul's below 

aynul's

i had set this alert after the doji.

i had saw this crack around 1130, didn't believe it, but i drew some alerts to see what would happen. looks like she cracked back down. that was the problem with todays trading. the chart of the q's i thought was saying long, the tickers were green, and then there were charts like MON and RIMM which were pointing down. all this lead me to be very confused today.

sweet entry, missed exit due to nap

this is where i was thinking the market was a long. looking now, i guess its not the prettiest. i tried going after it into the retrace of the 1045 doji. i got stopped out but went after it again. i knew it was a "level" i had to pay attention to but that i may not time it correctly so i would need to get back after it. glad i napped, s.o.b. just chopped back and forth.

another one i had set alerts on.

well, another decent learning day. i am starting to enjoy the process again. the challenge of finding the correct stocks and letting them work. i love knowing that i found some pretty good movers on the day. it just comes down to timing the correctly, surviving the first wave, and letting them to their thing. we'll see if i can get a good nights sleep in and be ready for tomorrow.

soo-ee, i would take that trade any day of the week. that is just the probabilities working them selves out.

zoomed out

zoomed in, very nice. cheap stock, big move, number 1 on my watchlist sorted by vol % change

nice 15 minute doji

pop and drop

amazing the action around the lines you can draw intraday. what i have discovered is that this area is an area to watch. it's not an end all be all. you need to pay close attention to the action here and see how it goes.

just demonstrating fibs. notice how the retracement turns around in the 50% retracement zone.

here as well. it is just amazing to me that the waves that i watch, which correspond to the lines i draw, also match up well with fib levels.

today i basically watched the market the whole day. i did not put on one trade. i just wanted to watch the action around the levels i was drawing. the exercise was freeing. i may not place one trade this week. just watch the market, draw my levels, and see the reaction. not having a position on, or thinking about a position, allows me to think clearly and freely. there is no being upset if i get stopped out, no being happy if i am making money.

having the market turn around at my pre-drawn levels and then myself saying the probability from this "area" is that it will go down. it builds confidence. it shows me i know what to watch for, know what to look for. it is strictly a timing issue. time the trade properly, you will not be threatened with being stopped out, survive the first pullback, and you can let the trade ride. obviously, this happens when there is a trend day, but make big money on those days more than enough to cover your losses on other days.

lets see how the week plays out.

i have more to say, but its hard to think anymore.

article

pretty good article about mark douglas workshop:


http://www.powerswings.com/reference/Stone_2005.pdf



there is also a grea video on the net, if you google mark douglas wize trade. the interviewer wasn't exactly understading what douglas's points. but it sure helped me in understanding what douglas has been saying in his book "trading in the zone". i would be interested in ordering some of the cd's from douglas website but they are expensive.  also, its pretty funny, douglas sells a recording of his path to consistency workshop for $800 and it is on 7 cassettes, walkman included, lol.


dtf, minute 34 or 35, he talks about not being right or wrong, just probability. i keep listening to it over and over again. random outcome, no reason for dissappointment. no reason to be upset or angry when you get stopped out.

i didn't trade it because i thought how far can a $12 stock move. i have made this mistake in the past. $2 move

i missed the hammer at the bottom as i was scanning other charts. shorted using the 5 min. added size as it went down. stopped out. went after it again later on. kept doubling up. for the amount of share size i had going, i don't think it paid off well. if i had traded off the 15min, i don't think i would have shorted until after 2pm.

felt like a flush out. big volume down move. i decided to take it for a little ride long. i exited as it was bumping into the doji from around 2:45

1:45 was  nice short siganal.

good day. actually it was a great day money wise but i don't think i was paid for the amount of risk i had put on or the share size i was using. i need to work my way out of this funk. i should be stoked after some nice trading today, but instead i am blase.i need to get excited by trading again.

saw this light up the screen after it was almost up $6. i waited patiently to see if there was a point i could short from. i decided to take a trade short, with about a .50 stop. added one time. exited after 1.25 i think.

can't really say why i took this trade. it may be because i had flipped on CNBC when i first woke up and they were saying SNDK had been the worst performing stock on the Q's for the past few days. i see a crappy inverted hammer on the 5, a crappy hammer on the 10 and 15. and it never broke the low of the real body doji on the 15. stupid trade. thats all i can say.

look how easy the 1:30 trade was. i just get so frustrated looking through stocks and then getting stopped out on the positions i put on. i need to remember, it is my job to take the best trades possible. if its boring, then its boring. not putting on a trade is also a trade. its like i want to be this fantastic momo trader, almost scalper, in and out all day so i'm not bored. but i get crazy when i am back and forth following a 5 min chart. i just  need to accept that my job is to find the best charts possible and trade 'em.

not much to say. inverted hammer that i thought looked great. i see now the q's didn't make quite the same candle but i still would have shorted it. it was also at days highs. i got frustrated and got up after i got stopped out. when my first trade is stopped out, i get upset.  on the surface i know this is a game of probability but inside it still effects my ego i guess. i know my probability of winning is 40%. i just need to stick to the game plan. excellent long signal around 1pm as well. 

anyway, another frustrating day. i think i am just negative in my head from losing for the past year. it a difficult place to get past. i need to start putting on some winning trades, and stringing some winning days in a row and soon. i need to build of that confidence. i will be leaving for the month of october, and i would like to get better before i go. this game is mind boggling. i need to keep the positivity flowing. i am going to repeat outloud tomorrow my affirmations. i will read them (sight), write them (touch) and speak them (hearing). i 'm trying to hit as many senses as possible.


hope you all did well.

stayed strong, doubled up. the real exit was on the start of the 130 15min bar. i was just trying to hang in there to see what could happen.

i am not a fan of big gap down days. they tend to be inside days and its hard for me to make money. the conflict is, yesterday, i thought the same thing but there were some decent movers if you found them. today, i didn't have quite the same luck. even at the end of day review i didn't see much that i liked.

monster up move. nice red doji. candle prior was top wickish. got stopped out. went after it again a little later on, doubled up and exited because of signals on the 5 and 10.

its a short, short, stopped out of second half on first blue arrow, stopped out of original half on second blue arrow. the 1245 trade was a long after the market broke highs of the days and retraced. i thought it was taking a breather to go higher. i was incorrect. entry based on 5 minute. the 15 would not have gotten me in because it never broker highs of the real body or highs of the wick. looks like i gave up later in the day. actually, i think i took a nap i was so frustrated with the morning. looking back, i don't see the reason for all the frustration, it doesn't seem like anything was that hard today.

i'm always amazed at the action around these levels that i draw as the chart unfolds. the lighter blue was a line i thought about putting in, but didn't until end of day review. that doji on the 5 around 330 was a great signal. that and the hammer around 10 am were the two best signals of the day.

very frustrating morning for me but looking back now, it doesn't seem like it was that bad. i think the problem is i look to see how much i am down and that drives me nuts. i am using stops that are way too large or using too much share size. the most i want to risk per trade is $40 yet i find myself risking .40 on 200 shares. i need to get back to where i am comfortable and trade properly.

i need to crank the tunes so the day passes me by. i remember when i first started trading the days would fly by. now, they seem to go on forever because i am just so frustrated that i can't get it right. yes, i can get a few good trades in here or there, but they never seem to get over the hurdle of my losers. i used to think i could have a 40% win rate, and 2.5R on my winners and i would be set. but,in reality it isn't working that way. the math works that way so i don't know what i am doing wrong. maybe the problem is with R. for some trades R is  .15 so a winner of .38 is good. but other trades risk .40, so i would need to take a $1 on the next one to stay ahead of the game......

actually, i think i just figured out the problem.(update: i think the R thing actually works after doing the math)  R is based on a set number you are willing to risk, for me, lets say $30 per trade. you take the $30 and divide it by the stop, in this instance .15. So I can trade 200 shares. if i get stopped out i lose $30, if i exit at a 2.5R gain i get $38. next trade, my risk is .30, so i only trade 100 shares. if i get stop, my risk is still $30. if i am right, i gain $75 (2.5*.30). i know my probability of winning trades is 40%. on an average of 10 trades, if i have six losing trades at $30 loss per trade, that is -$180. if my four winners come from .15 risk trades of 200 shares a piece, and i exit at 2.5R, then i am up $300 (.15*2.5*200*4).mmmm, maybe it does work. i am going to try it with ninja trader tomorrow. the problem with lightspeed is i can't enter orders that are odd lots. and i love lightspeed. lets see how the proper position sizing helps my trading tomorrow and we will go from there.

i know you can do odd lots at interactive brokers and trade station but there trades cost more than lightspeed. plus, interactive brokers interface stinks. i don't know if i want to pay for Ninja Trader and trade station seems pretty close to lightspeed interface, but they don't let you demo the software. oh, and i need my lightspeed ticker.

phew long rambling post. sorry


working on my win rate will solve all these problems.

i was waiting for this one to setup short. i was a bit early. i could see go long shortly after and possibly either getting out around 145 or going for a big drop down real fast and getting stopped. i am seeing now the decent narrow bar that occurred after the top wickish candle. excellent short signal. i think this game is all about patience in waiting for the correct setup to unfold, and patience in waiting for a proper exit signal.

i would have gotten stopped out this one a few times. short at 12, stopped on 1215. now the question is, do i get short again? if i did, i would have gotten stopped out around 2pm. if i didn't, maybe i would have taken the long at 1pm. what i am realizing, in order to make money and not get stopped out, you need to get at least 2 cycles or waves in your direction. take the 1pm long, you got an up move, slight retracment, and then a move up again. a nice exit signal or a place to move your stops up to.

gorgeous

another beauty

i would have had a very tough time trading this today. looks like a scalpers dream. looking at the 5 min actually annoys my brain. i love the 15 min charts.

another beauty

i was trying an experiment by buying TZA at the top of q's trading range, and then i was going to buy TNA at the bottom of the q's range. unfortunately, i timed it incorrectly and the range trade was done soon after i entered. TNA get me all excited so I bought some. The wrong thing to do, and the rookie thing to do. I was just playing around and wanted to see where it would go if I didn't care. no stops or anything. phew! that thing is a beast and a stock to stay away from.

today, i just wasn't in the mood to trade. i guess for some reason, i am feeling like there is never opportunity so i try to do wacky stuff. in reality, i just need to be paitent and find these trades. they are there, i just need to wade through the b.s. to get to them. hopefully, i will get some nice sleep tonight. think happy thoughts like peter pan, and be ready to tackle the market again tomorrow.

here is the purchase of TZA at the high of the q's range, right before it broke out and stopped me. pretty amusing. it just teaches me to stay away from these beasts unless you have a nice tight stop of .10 or .15 and some other factorys going for you. either moving averages, fib level, candle signal, gut belief. something. otherwise its not worth the risk