stayed strong, doubled up. the real exit was on the start of the 130 15min bar. i was just trying to hang in there to see what could happen.

i am not a fan of big gap down days. they tend to be inside days and its hard for me to make money. the conflict is, yesterday, i thought the same thing but there were some decent movers if you found them. today, i didn't have quite the same luck. even at the end of day review i didn't see much that i liked.

monster up move. nice red doji. candle prior was top wickish. got stopped out. went after it again a little later on, doubled up and exited because of signals on the 5 and 10.

its a short, short, stopped out of second half on first blue arrow, stopped out of original half on second blue arrow. the 1245 trade was a long after the market broke highs of the days and retraced. i thought it was taking a breather to go higher. i was incorrect. entry based on 5 minute. the 15 would not have gotten me in because it never broker highs of the real body or highs of the wick. looks like i gave up later in the day. actually, i think i took a nap i was so frustrated with the morning. looking back, i don't see the reason for all the frustration, it doesn't seem like anything was that hard today.

i'm always amazed at the action around these levels that i draw as the chart unfolds. the lighter blue was a line i thought about putting in, but didn't until end of day review. that doji on the 5 around 330 was a great signal. that and the hammer around 10 am were the two best signals of the day.

very frustrating morning for me but looking back now, it doesn't seem like it was that bad. i think the problem is i look to see how much i am down and that drives me nuts. i am using stops that are way too large or using too much share size. the most i want to risk per trade is $40 yet i find myself risking .40 on 200 shares. i need to get back to where i am comfortable and trade properly.

i need to crank the tunes so the day passes me by. i remember when i first started trading the days would fly by. now, they seem to go on forever because i am just so frustrated that i can't get it right. yes, i can get a few good trades in here or there, but they never seem to get over the hurdle of my losers. i used to think i could have a 40% win rate, and 2.5R on my winners and i would be set. but,in reality it isn't working that way. the math works that way so i don't know what i am doing wrong. maybe the problem is with R. for some trades R is  .15 so a winner of .38 is good. but other trades risk .40, so i would need to take a $1 on the next one to stay ahead of the game......

actually, i think i just figured out the problem.(update: i think the R thing actually works after doing the math)  R is based on a set number you are willing to risk, for me, lets say $30 per trade. you take the $30 and divide it by the stop, in this instance .15. So I can trade 200 shares. if i get stopped out i lose $30, if i exit at a 2.5R gain i get $38. next trade, my risk is .30, so i only trade 100 shares. if i get stop, my risk is still $30. if i am right, i gain $75 (2.5*.30). i know my probability of winning trades is 40%. on an average of 10 trades, if i have six losing trades at $30 loss per trade, that is -$180. if my four winners come from .15 risk trades of 200 shares a piece, and i exit at 2.5R, then i am up $300 (.15*2.5*200*4).mmmm, maybe it does work. i am going to try it with ninja trader tomorrow. the problem with lightspeed is i can't enter orders that are odd lots. and i love lightspeed. lets see how the proper position sizing helps my trading tomorrow and we will go from there.

i know you can do odd lots at interactive brokers and trade station but there trades cost more than lightspeed. plus, interactive brokers interface stinks. i don't know if i want to pay for Ninja Trader and trade station seems pretty close to lightspeed interface, but they don't let you demo the software. oh, and i need my lightspeed ticker.

phew long rambling post. sorry


working on my win rate will solve all these problems.

i was waiting for this one to setup short. i was a bit early. i could see go long shortly after and possibly either getting out around 145 or going for a big drop down real fast and getting stopped. i am seeing now the decent narrow bar that occurred after the top wickish candle. excellent short signal. i think this game is all about patience in waiting for the correct setup to unfold, and patience in waiting for a proper exit signal.